Reflecting on my predictions from 2020, it's essential to assess key trends and their progress. One significant factor I did not foresee was the COVID-19 pandemic, which profoundly impacted the way we work. This unprecedented event accelerated the shift toward flexible and remote working models, some of which are now being rolled back to a degree. Its influence reshaped many HR priorities, including well-being, digital infrastructure, and workplace flexibility.
Digitisation: Germany’s Continued Transformation
In 2020, I noted Germany’s delayed yet vigorous embrace of digitisation. Halfway through the decade, this trajectory has proven accurate, though it remains uneven. Large corporations like Siemens and Deutsche Telekom have made significant strides in integrating cloud-based HRIS and employee self-service systems. For instance, Deutsche Telekom’s "Cloud Transformation" project aimed to move 80% of its infrastructure to the cloud by 2025, which shows the commitment to digital transformation. However, many SMBs still grapple with legacy systems, and the public sector continues to face challenges, with the Innovationsstau still prevalent in many areas.
That said, success stories in e-commerce and manufacturing—especially from Zalando and Bosch—demonstrate that German pragmatism, once engaged, can yield impressive results. Bosch, for example, has invested heavily in digitalisation, with its "Bosch Connected Industry" division, which generated over 2 billion euros in revenue in 2023 alone. As I wrote in 2020, “German HR can and must play a vital role in this important transition to ensure a holistic approach to talent attraction and digital capability building.”
Prediction accuracy: Mostly correct. The digitisation wave has arrived, but its impact remains uneven across sectors. Large corporations are leading the charge, while SMBs and the public sector still lag behind. The pandemic further emphasized the need for robust digital infrastructures to support remote work and resilience.
Looking ahead, HR must focus on leveraging digitisation for predictive analytics in talent management and improving employee experiences through seamless digital interactions. The potential for AI-enhanced decision-making in hiring and workforce planning remains a tantalizing but underutilized opportunity.
Agility Meets Tradition: Progress Amidst Resistance
The push for agility in German workplaces has progressed cautiously. While start-ups and tech hubs in Berlin continue to champion cross-functional squads and flattened hierarchies, traditional industries have shown limited adoption. According to a 2024 report from the German HR Association (DGFP), only 31% of companies in the automotive sector had adopted agile practices at a corporate level by 2023. The cultural barriers I discussed in 2020—hierarchical norms and a discomfort with uncertainty—persist, particularly in legacy sectors like automotive and finance. As I observed five years ago, “Introducing an agile form of organisation has to be evaluated thoroughly. It solves no self-purpose and must serve the needs of the business and culture.”
Prediction accuracy: Partially correct. Agility has flourished in start-ups and tech hubs but remains a challenge in traditional industries, which continue to struggle with cultural shifts.
Despite these challenges, companies aligning agility with cultural change, like BASF’s hybrid approach, are reaping the rewards. BASF’s use of agile methods within its R&D department led to a 20% increase in project completion speed in 2023. Moving forward, HR leaders must balance innovation with cultural respect. Surveys, employee participation, and purpose-driven change strategies will be essential for embedding agility without alienating core talent.
AI and Blockchain: Emerging, Yet Nascent
AI and blockchain’s disruptive potential is unfolding more slowly than anticipated. While AI-driven chatbots and recruitment tools are gaining traction, their full-scale integration remains limited. Blockchain, despite its promise, has seen fewer applications in HR than expected, with payroll and credential verification being notable exceptions. For instance, as of 2024, only 6% of companies in Germany use blockchain for HR-related processes, according to a study by PwC.
Prediction accuracy: Partially correct. AI, while ubiquitous in discussions, plays a larger role than anticipated in areas like supply chain planning and credit risk evaluation. Microsoft’s Co-Pilot, for example, handles mundane tasks, freeing up employees to focus on more strategic work, highly welcomed by global players like Unilever. The pandemic also highlighted AI’s role in workforce planning and safety protocols, although its application in HR remains focused on talent acquisition and development. The rise of generative AI models and advancements in quantum computing suggest that the second half of the decade may deliver the transformative impact initially forecasted. Companies like Novartis are already implementing AI in talent development on a larger scale, and we can expect the full-fledged integration of AI tools and processes into all aspects of corporate life. HR leaders should prioritize digital literacy and learning agility, preparing teams to adopt these technologies as they mature. However, while AI's influence will undeniably transform the way we work and live, its potential risks—such as the spread of disinformation—should not be underestimated, and must be carefully managed.
Blockchain has advanced, but not at the pace or scale originally predicted. However, the underlying technology remains largely underutilized. The next few years will be the litmus test for blockchain's true potential, as its applications continue to evolve, particularly in areas like HR, supply chain management, and credential verification.
Sustainability: A Rising Priority
The shift toward purpose and sustainability has accelerated since 2020. ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) metrics are now central to employer branding and talent acquisition strategies. Germany’s Green Party’s influence—despite recent political changes—and movements like Fridays for Future have amplified this focus. Companies are increasingly asked about their carbon footprints, supply chain ethics, and support for employees' mental well-being. Five years ago, I observed, “German employees in middle and senior management traditionally love their company cars, but there’s a noticeable shift away from it.”
Prediction accuracy: Correct. Sustainability has become a cornerstone of employer branding, with tangible changes in benefits and corporate priorities.
Corporate leaders like Bayer and Adidas have responded with initiatives such as offering sustainable commuting options and adopting circular economy principles in production. HR’s role in shaping these narratives is more pronounced than ever, with employee value propositions increasingly tied to sustainability goals. The second half of the decade will likely see these expectations solidify into baseline requirements.
Internationalisation and Talent Mobility
Germany’s HR landscape has become more global, with cities like Berlin, Munich, and Frankfurt drawing international talent. The demand for returnee German professionals and multilingual specialists continues to grow. According to a 2024 report by the German Federal Employment Agency, international job vacancies in Germany have increased by 18% over the last five years, with technology and health sectors seeing the highest demand. Cross-functional hiring and a focus on potential over experience are becoming more common, especially in progressive industries. As I noted in 2020, “Markets like Berlin, Munich, and Frankfurt are becoming increasingly international from an HR talent perspective.”
Prediction accuracy: Correct. The trend toward internationalization and mobility has accelerated, with Germany’s major cities attracting global talent and diverse hiring practices becoming more common.
Cross-functional hiring and a focus on potential over experience are increasingly widespread, but integrating diverse talent pools within traditional German work cultures remains a challenge.
Conclusion: Adjusting the Lens
Reflecting on the predictions from 2020, it’s clear that change is happening, albeit at a measured pace. HR in Germany is navigating a complex interplay of digitisation, cultural transformation, technological disruption, sustainability, and globalisation. Additionally, the pandemic has acted as a seismic force, accelerating changes like flexible work models while also exposing the fragility of certain systems.
In 2020, I predicted the decline of entire sectors and the rise of new ones. The automotive sector, in particular, has struggled to adapt to electrification and changing global markets. Today, we find ourselves in the eye of the storm in Germany, with some industries still reeling, while technology, green energy, and e-commerce are experiencing growth once again. These dynamics underline the importance of adaptability and foresight in HR leadership.
As Bill Gates famously said, the changes we’ve seen so far are likely just the tip of the iceberg. The next five years will demand even more adaptability and foresight from HR leaders as they navigate an increasingly dynamic and interconnected world. Let’s embrace the opportunities ahead with purpose and determination.
Keep up with the latest HR trends
